The psychology of market bubbles - Barclays Private Bank

JPMorgan Asset Management projects Bitcoin (BTC) will outperform stocks and gold over the next decade, but cautions that its volatility makes it unsuitable for diversifying portfolios for now. On Monday, JPMorgan published its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, projecting a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin, compared with 7.5% for large-cap US stocks and 5.5% for gold. The projections are part of JPMorgan’s annual outlook covering more than 200 assets to help investors plan their portfolios. “At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations,” the report said. “We see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”JPMorgan’s projected Bitcoin returns compared with traditional assets. Source: JPMorganJPMorgan projects double-digit Bitcoin gains or lossesJPMorgan’s bull case puts Bitcoin’s annualized return at 16.6%, while its bear case projects an annualized loss of 11.2%. The calculations considered BTC supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold and network adoption.

SummaryU. S. spot bitcoin ETFs added $526.6 million on Monday, led entirely by BlackRock’s IBIT net inflow of $665.2 million. Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC saw outflows of $83.6 million and $54.9 million, respectively. Ether funds dropped $103.3 million, marking a fourth consecutive session of outflows. U. S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $526.6 million on Monday, the largest daily net inflow in nearly a month, driven entirely by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). IBIT pulled in $665.2 million, its biggest daily inflow since Oct. 7 last year, according to SoSoValue data. Combined, the bitcoin funds last drew more on Sept. 22, when they added $714.7 million. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $83.6 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC shed $54.9 million in Monday’s trading session, while the remaining funds recorded no net flows, underscoring how concentrated buying was. The inflow more than erased last week’s $228.5 million of withdrawals, though the funds remain about $90.5 million in the red for October, according to CoinDesk calculations using SoSoValue’s figures.

As bad as it is for the housing market — starts and transactions basically flat for the last three years with mortgage rates over 7%— it can get still get worse.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is looking to expand its crypto fund lineup with a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offers limited downside protection in exchange for capped gains. The world’s largest asset manager on Monday filed a preliminary prospectus with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF (PBIT). The proposed ETF would use options linked to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) rather than holding Bitcoin (BTC) directly, according to the preliminary prospectus filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). IBIT is the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets. It holds Bitcoin directly and gives investors exposure through brokerage accounts. The fund had $65.7 billion in net assets as of Monday, according to BlackRock. BlackRock also runs the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA), a spot Ether fund with $8 billion in net assets. The asset manager has yet to launch US spot ETFs tracking other cryptocurrencies such as Solana or XRP. ETF Store president Nate Geraci questioned BlackRock’s continued absence from the market for spot ETFs tracking other cryptocurrencies.