El Niño incoming? Forecasters see signs of big changes ahead - The Weather Network

The global tropics are bustling as intense summer sunshine warms the Pacific and Atlantic basins to some of their warmest waters of the year. Conditions across the Atlantic remain exceptionally quiet as a strengthening El Niño takes its toll on the region’s environment. Meanwhile, a steamy Pacific Ocean is practically printing one storm after another. DON’T MISS: Trouble may lurk beyond hurricane season’s very quiet startPacific Ocean is bustling with activityThe Pacific Ocean is staying busy this year thanks to generally favourable conditions and very warm sea surface temperatures, influenced by the presence of a growing El Niño. Four of the five tropical cyclones that have reached Category 5 strength around the world so far this year formed over steamy Pacific waters, including Sinlaku, Bavi, Dolphin, and Genevieve. The basin shows no signs of slowing down. Forecasters spent the weekend tracking 10 different areas of interest, including named storms and disturbances, throughout tropical sections of the Pacific Ocean. This basin is staying busy thanks to generally favourable conditions and very warm sea surface temperatures.

What a 30% chance of rain actually meansYour app says there is a 30% chance of rain. You head out. It pours. We've all been there. It comes down to how meteorologists calculate that percentage, and everything the number quietly leaves out. What 30% actually means Start by clearing away what it doesn't mean. Does 30% mean it will rain over 30% of the area? Not by itself. Does it mean it will rain 30% of the time? No — duration isn't in the equation at all. Does it mean the forecaster is only 30% confident it will rain? Not quite. Confidence is part of it, but only part. Storm clouds over the Manhattan skyline at sunrise. Behind every rain percentage sit two figures your app never shows you.(Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)Here's the actual definition: a 30% chance of rain means there's a 30% chance measurable rain — 0.01 inch or more — falls at your specific spot during the forecast window. Out of 10 days with conditions just like today's, roughly three would see rain where you're standing. Get More of Our News on GoogleSet The Weather Company as a 'Preferred Source' to get quicker access to the news you value. Notice that definition is about your spot — one location.