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The Limits of Climate Attribution Science - The Breakthrough Institute

·Oct 7, 2026
Source: The Breakthrough Institute
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Photo credit : The logo of the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental research center based in Berkeley, California. Our research focuses on identifying and promoting technological solutions to environmental and human development challenges in three areas: energy, conservation, and food and farming.

On Monday, the Supreme Court heard a threshold question in Suncor Energy (U. S. A.) Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County: whether cities and counties can sue oil companies for climate damages under state law, or whether federal law bars those suits before they begin. Dozens of similar cases are pending in state courts, seeking billions from energy companies for harms caused by global climate change. While the Suncor complaint itself is vague on how to determine the precise economic damages caused by the defendants, subsequent litigation has relied more and more on event attribution that apportions the increased likelihood of a natural disaster, and its proportional economic harms, to the effects of global warming and even to specific emitters. In May of this year, the Breakthrough Institute filed an amicus brief in Suncor, petitioning the Court to reverse the Colorado Supreme Court’s ruling that localities and other private parties could sue emitters under state tort law. Then in July, the National Academies of Sciences released a report summarizing the state of the climate impacts attribution literature.

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