JPMorgan lays out the investing playbook for 3 midterm-election scenarios - Business Insider
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Elections tend to bring something that the market hates: uncertainty. In just over a month, Americans will vote in the midterms, deciding which party gets to control Congress for the rest of Donald Trump's term. Given the policy roller coaster that's already been a defining characteristic of Trump's second stint in office, Wall Street is laser focused on the outcome and its potential impacts. Historically, midterms often bring gridlock, with each party controlling one of the chambers of Congress. This tends to be an outcome Wall Street likes to see, leading to a continuity trade as investors pile into what's already been working. And while JPMorgan sees that as a possibility, its strategists are eyeing two other outcomes, both of which have major implications for markets. "In the 2024 presidential election, it was easier to map the equity impact of potential policy priorities across sectors, industries, themes and factors," wrote strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas in a note to investors. "However, the equity impact for the upcoming midterms across election outcomes scenarios will likely be more nuanced and favor stock picking.
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