Warsh speaks in Bangkok after hot CPI: is a second Fed hike coming in October? - investingLive
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This is the highest-impact appearance of the day. Short-dated Treasuries and the dollar are most exposed to any signal that October is live, after Wednesday’s inflation data lifted two-year yields sharply. Oil is the central variable: fuel costs tied to the Iran war are the main source of the latest inflation jump, so a sustained move in crude feeds directly into Fed hike expectations. A hawkish Warsh would likely add pressure on equities and gold, which slid after the CPI release as yields rose. A guarded performance, sticking to his dislike of forward guidance, would leave the hike debate resting on data.---Warsh is the big one today! But not the only one:BOE, Bailey, Bangkok. What could possibly go wrong? Preview and 3 questions for the GovernorPreview: Nagel and Klingbeil in Bangkok: three themes as the ECB weighs a December hikeMacklem in Bangkok: oil, tariffs and job losses test the Bank of Canada’s hike case---
Warsh has spent two months arguing inflation will not fix itself, and a hot September CPI hands him the evidence just as markets debate whether the Fed’s second hike comes in October or December.
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