Gold Market Commentary: Go with the flow - World Gold Council
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HighlightsSeptember reviewA surge in US Treasury yields and the US dollar alongside a drop in futures positions helped drive prices lower in September, despite impressive gold ETF inflows. Looking forwardUK gold ETFs delivered a stellar Q3. Fiscal concerns may be helping, but this looks less like the short-lived 2022 surge and more like a sustained shift in demand.
Divergent investor flowsGold finished September at US$4,176/oz, 8.5% lower m/m, with similar declines across all the major currencies we track (Table 1). Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests that a rise in yields and a stronger US dollar were major contributors to September’s drop in prices as the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed 53bps to 5.3% and the DXY index rose 2% (Chart 1). Yet September was unusual: despite the price decline, global gold ETFs recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions. North America led the charge, followed by Europe and Asia. In contrast to strong ETF demand, COMEX positioning contracted sharply.
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